Risks in the Making: The Mediating Role of Models in Water Management and Civil Engineering in the Netherlands

Matthijs Kouw

Zusammenfassung: Wie Risiken entstehen: Zum medialen Charakter von Modellen am Beispiel von Wasserwirtschaft und Ingenieurbau der Niederlande. Der Umgang mit Vorannahmen, Unsicherheiten und blinden Flecken gehçrt zur Praxis der Modellie- rung. Dabei wird das den Modellen inh-rente Wissen um Risiken in unterschiedlichem Maße sichtbar, was fer technologische Kulturen, die auf Modelle rekurrieren, folgenreich sein kann. Um Kollaborationen zwischen unterschiedlichen sozialen Gruppen wie Inge- nieuren und politischen Entscheidern zu ermçglichen, werden in „trading zones“ (Peter Galison) gemeinsame Sprachregelungen gestiftet. W-hrend solche Sprachregelungen tat- s-chlich soziale Gruppen verbinden und deren Zusammenarbeit befçrdern kçnnen, geht die Rolle von Modellen als Medium h-ufig nicht in diese Sprachregelungen mit ein. Die Sprachregelungen der trading zones kçnnen somit dazu beitragen, den Einfluss der Mo- dellierungspraxis auf Risikoeinsch-tzungen zu verdecken. Aufbauend auf Einsichten aus den Science and Technology Studies (STS) und empirischer Forschung in hydrologi- scher, hydrodynamischer und geotechnischer Ingenieursarbeit sowie der :kologie unter- streicht dieser Beitrag die Netzlichkeit des medialen Charakters von Modellen fer den Nachvollzug unterschiedlicher Risikoeinsch-tzungen von Akteuren im Wasserschutz. Die F-higkeit, Vorannahmen, Unsicherheiten und blinde Flecken von Computersimula- tionen und Modellierungspraxen zu erkennen und einzusch-tzen, erweist sich bei man- gelnder Werdigung des medialen Charakters von Modellen als eingeschr-nkt.

Summary: Risks in the Making: The Mediating Role of Models in Water Manage- ment and Civil Engineering in the Netherlands. Reliance on models can make techno- logical cultures susceptible to risks through the assumptions, uncertainties, and blind spots that may accompany modeling practices. Historian of science Peter Galison has described computer modeling practices as “trading zones”, conceptual spaces in which a shared language is hammered out in an attempt to facilitate collaboration between dif- ferent social groups, such as engineers and policymakers. Although such a shared lan- guage may enable collaboration between diverse groups, it may also make the relation between modeling practices and knowledge of risks less visible, since the shared language does not necessarily acknowledge how models produce knowledge about their world. In that respect, models have a ‘mediating’ role, since they are not straightforward representa- tions of the world, but involve a process of translating phenomena into formalized repre- sentations that enable experimentation. Drawing on insights from Science and Technolo- gy Studies (STS) and empirical work in the domains of hydrology, hydrodynamics, geo- technical engineering, and ecology, this paper emphasizes the importance of understand- ing the mediating role of models in shaping the understanding that various actors hold with regard to water-related risks. Failing to appreciate the mediating role of models

M. Kouw, Dr., SIM-CI, Zuid Hollandlaan 7, NL-2596 AL The Hague, E-Mail: [email protected]

160 T 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Ber. Wissenschaftsgesch. 40 (2017) 160 – 174 www.bwg.wiley-vch.de

www.bwg.wiley-vch.de
hampers the ability of actors to understand the assumptions, uncertainties, and blind spots that accompany simulation practices, and may put technological cultures at risk.

Keywords: trading zone, risk, hydrology, hydrodynamics, geotechnical engineering, ecology, immersion, uncertainty, exclusion

Schlesselwçrter: Aushandlungszone, Risiko, Hydrologie, Hydrodynamik, Geotechnik, :kologie, Immersion, Unsicherheit, Exklusion

1 Introduction: increasing reliance on models

Although the history of the Netherlands is marked by catastrophe due to the nation’s propensity to flooding, the Dutch have become renowned for their ability to deal with the various challenges presented by the water which surrounds them. Climate change poses further risks in the form of rapid rises in sea level and peak river discharges, as well as surface water quality and biodiversity decreases due to ongoing water temperature in- creases.1 The history of the Netherlands features many examples of successful interven- tions against flood risk, the apex of which is a series of flood barriers known as the Delta Works, situated in the southeast of the Netherlands. In 1953, after a dramatic flood in the Zeeland province, which led to both significant loss of life and capital, a set of flood risk management measures materialized in the form of a ‘Deltaplan’, a strategy to shorten the Dutch coastline, thereby reducing the number of dykes that needed to be raised, and economically improving the safety of the Zeeland province. This ambitious construction commenced in 1954, and was only completed in 1997. The American Society of Civil Engineers declared the Delta Works, along with the ‘Zuiderzee Works’, a set of dams, dykes, and land reclamation works in the north of the Netherlands, as one of the ‘Seven Wonders of the Modern World’. The success of such large-scale engineering projects in the Netherlands has granted the Dutch the reputation of being able to master Earth’s ele- ments.Illustrate the use of computational models and present the role of general trust and values or possible biases in decision making. Write your submission in 1200 words or less in an MS Word Document. Your paper must demonstrate proper APA formatting and style. Your paper should include references from your unit readings and assigned research; the sources should be appropriately cited throughout your paper and in your reference list. Use meaningful section headings to clarify the organization and readability of your paper. Review the rubrics before working on the assignment.